Nicola Sturgeon's popularity is in freefall.
For all of the talk about a second independence referendum, one thing that seems to have been missed is that the First Minister of Scotland is getting a lot less popular, fast.
According to YouGov/The Times opinion poll, Scots who think she is doing her job well have fallen from 80% to 51% and those who think she is doing her job badly have more than doubled from 20% to 49% in just under two years:
Breaking this data down you can see that the main driver of this is those who are strongly dissatisfied with the First Minister:
Why? Paradoxically considering residents of Scotland voted 62% to 38% to remain in the EU, the main trigger for her significantly worsening job performance appears to be Brexit. I would conclude from this that the issue doesn't seem to be that she is opposed to leaving the EU (like most Scots are), but that her reaction since the vote has been to relentlessly bang on about a second referendum rather than focus on other areas of importance like the NHS, education and the economy.
A good indicator of whether this trend is going to continue will be the May 2017 local elections and June 2017 General Election.
If the SNP does badly, it may be for the first time in her career as First Minister that Nicola Sturgeon has personally become a drag on the SNP's performance.